October 17th Picks

  There really isn't a lot to pick today that looks safe. If you have a streak of 10 or more you may want to skip the day unless you really feel sure about something. You still have 2 weeks though before the end of the month so missing a day shouldn't hurt you. Today I'm going to do something a little different, by listing all my choices for today's picks after my favorite since a lot of you ask a lot about other picks. Here is the pick that looks the best of the worst (in my opinion)...

Pick #1 24 points or fewer scored in the second half

  I need to look at how the first half pans out, but so far this pick looks pretty good. The Jets have an outstanding passing defense, ranking 5th in the NFL, allowing about 203 passing yards a game. Rush defense for the Jets has been another story as they rank 28th giving up about 135 yards a game. The Dolphins have a pretty mediocre defnese (31st in pass defense, 13th in rush defense), but with the Jets horrible offense, they may be ok. The Jets rank 22nd in passing yards (221 a game) and 31st in rushing yards (76 a game). Still we have to see how the first half goes, but at a glance I would go 24 or under.

My other picks for the day (the coin-flippers)

FC Copenhagen Win- FC is 9-2-0 with a 14 goal difference and 29 goals. AC Horsens is 4-4-3 with a 4pt goal difference and 16 goals this season. FC has only drawn twice, and beat Horsens 1-0 on the road.

Osasuna win or draw- If Osasuna was at home I think they would win outright. Still, I like the draw option.

Toronto Maple Leafs- Tough to call, but Toronto just because they are at home.

Miami Dolphins Single Digit Loss- I flipped a coin, it landed on heads... so single digit loss. Plus both teams are aweful.

First score of the MNF game (NFL football)- Flip your own coin. Not sure I can decide.

Nashville Predators-

October 17th Picks will be up tomorrow morning

 I will get October 17th picks up late tomorrow morning (around 10 to 11am)

October 16th Results

Aaron Rogers 3 TDs or more- Win (3 exactly)
Tom Brady throws for more yards than Romo- Loss (Romo 317, Brady 289)
Chivas USA Win, Draw, lose by 1- Win (lost 1-0)

Record for day 2-1
Record for month 20-12

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October 16th Picks

Pick #1 Aaron Rogers throws for 3 touchdowns or more (NFL football)

The Packers barely run it, and usually rely on Rogers to make their big plays. He already has 14 touchdown passes in his first 5 games this season. There is really not a lot to say. With the Rams having such a poor defense, I really think Rogers can edge out 3 or 4 touchdown passes today. I have a lot of confidence in this pick, and I will probably risk my streak on it.

Pick #2 Tom Brady records more passing yards than Tony Romo (NFL football)

It seems like SM is feeling pretty generous with some of today's QB picks. Romo has looked excellent this season, but looking at the stats, Brady is your best bet. He (Brady) struggled against Oakland back in week 4, throwing for 226 yards and 2 touchdowns (not that thats bad, just for Tom Brady, you would typically expect more). In every other game however, he has thrown for well over 300+ yards. 321 yards against the Jets last week, 387 yards against Buffalo in week 3, 423 yards against San Diego in week 2, and 517 yards in an incredible performance against Miami in the season opener. His passing yards have been dropping a little since the beginning of the year, but he has still put up solid numbers.

Now here is the catch/break for Romo; New England has the worst pass defense in the NFL so far, giving up about 326 yards a game through the air. And that is where this prop loses it “lock” status. Brady is by far a much better quarterback, but Romo can be very productive as well. Add the element of the worst pass defense in the NFL, and it could be a rough pick for Brady pickers. In 4 games, Romo has thrown for 1,273 yards (passing yards in games; 342 week 1, 345 week 2, 255 week 3, 331week 4).

Now the break for Brady and Brady pickers; is that Romo is probable for todays game. No start for Romo and the pick gets pushed. If he does start there is the risk of him playing gimped up and underperforming.

At the end of the day though, I would take Brady. With him at home in a comfortable environment, Brady should be pretty relaxed. Plus if Romo is still pretty hurt, he more than likely won't play to his full potential. When Brady is relaxed, he usually catches fire.

Pick #3 Chivas USA win, draw or lose by 1 (MLS Soccer)

The LA Galaxy will go into this game resting most of their starters. LA may have them out at the beginning of the game, but I don't see LA playing starters for to long. LA has accomplished everything it needs to for the regular season, and has more to worry about in upcoming matches. They lost 0-2 in their last game to the mediocre NY Red Bulls as a result of limiting starters playing time, like today.

Chivas USA is 8-12-12 with 1pt goal difference, and has scored 36 goals this year. LA is 18-10-4 with an impressive 21 goal difference and 64 goals this season. LA is a much better team, but resting starters really brings them down to Chivas USA's level. Even if it was Chivas USA win or draw I would consider it. But giving them that 1 goal cushion really makes me feel a lot more comfortable with this pick. Chivas USA looks like the pick.

**EDIT
 Another thing I forgot to mention is that this is not even a home game for LA. Chivas USA and the Galaxy both share the same stadium. Consider it a neutral site.

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October 15th Picks

Pick #1 South Carolina Gamecocks

  The #15 ranked Gamecocks (5-1) will go into Mississippi today to face Mississipi State (3-3). The Gamecocks will start quarterback Connor Shaw after Stephen Garcia was dismissed from the team after recieving 6 suspensions. Garcia has thrown for just 844 in a span of six games, as well as thrown 9 interceptions and only 4 touchdowns this season. Connor Shaw has looked good in previous games he has played. Specifically Kentucky, where he threw for 4 touchdowns. Even if Shaw were to struggle, he has a solid defense and great running game in Marcus Lattimore (146 attempts, 779 yards, 9 TDs) to back him up. Mississpipi State has looked decent this year, and though 3-3, has had losses to quality teams (Auburn, LSU, Georgia). Unfortunately, South Carolina is another quality team. I think they are the pick here.

Pick #2 Illinois Fighting Illini

The #16 Fighting Illini will go into this game 6-0 hosting the 3-3 Ohio State Buckeyes. Similar to the Mississippi State pick, Ohio State has had quality losses besides Miami (lossed to Michigan State and Nebraska). Ohio State still has yet to win on the road after losing to Miami and Nebraska, but looks to change that today. For Illinois, in addition to a good defense, they also have managed a good offense with a running game that averages about 226 yards per game lead by dual running backs Troy Pollard and Nathan Scheelhaase. Illinois has looked impressive so far this season. I don't think very many people expected them to be 6-0 this far in the season a year ago. I think today they make it 7-0. If Ohio State had homefield advantage this would be a completely different scenario. But when the significantly better team has homefeild advantage in college football, its hard to pick against them. Illini for the win.  

October 13th and 14th results

Results for October 13th and 14th;

October 13th:
Derry City - Loss 1-0
Detroit Red Wings- Win 2-0
USC Trojans- Win 30-9

October 14th
David Toms- Win
Webb Simpson- Win
160 passing yards or more- Win (174)
San Jose Sharks- Loss 0-1

Record for last 2 days 5-2
Overall Month Record- 17-10

Thanks for following,

Streakhelper


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